When I became a cynic about preseason strength of schedules

Isn’t strange how sometimes we can remember how our beliefs on certain subjects changed? When a team’s schedule, most specifically NFL and to a lesser extend college football, is released before the season, you hear fans and media alike talking about what team’s schedule is easy or difficult.

I was at a recent birthday party for a classmate of two of my kids. I went to school with the birthday boy’s father and our families have known each other since Moby Dick was a minnow. OK, I’m not that old but you get the idea. Anyhow, I was talking to a fellow who is an Oakland Raiders’ fan. The Raiders were once a proud franchise that has fallen into the abyss. Since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have lost at least 10 games in 10 of their last 12 seasons. Oakland had consecutive 8-8 seasons in 2010 and 2011.

If you are scoring at home, based on 2014 regular season records, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the most difficult schedule in 2015 while the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest. The Raiders, meanwhile have the seventh most difficult slate based on 2014 records.

However, it got me thinking, do preseason schedule rankings really have any correlation on translating success for the ensuing season? Who knows. It can work or not work both ways.

I can, however, tell you when I first became a cynic of that argument was 1999, which was my first season covering the Raiders for Silver & Black Illustrated. First, to set the scene, the Raiders went 8-8 in 1998, which was Jon Gruden’s first season. Oakland was slated to play road games at Green Bay and Minnesota to start the season.

In 1998, Green Bay went 11-5 before losing 30-27 to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Wild Card Game. That game was one of the most exciting postseason games of all time. Minnesota went 15-1 in 1998 only to lose in the NFC Title Game 30-27 in overtime to the Atlanta Falcons.

That said, I remember going into training camp in 1999, the running conversation of fans and media was to the effect of, “my goodness, the Raiders will start 0-2,” or “if the Raiders can somehow go 1-1.”

Here’s what happened, Green Bay rallied to beat the Raiders 28-24 as future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Brett Favre engineered one of his 45 game-winning drives in his career. Favre connected with tight end Jeff Thomason for a 1-yard touchdown pass with 11 seconds remaining.

One week later, the Raiders went to Minnesota and beat the Vikings 22-17.

So let’s fast forward how the 1999 season played out not only during these two weeks but throughout the season. Oakland and Green Bay each went 8-8. Minnesota went 10-6. So based on the outcome of the season for those teams and the outcome of the games, there’s no reason the Raiders shouldn’t have gone 1-1, even 2-0.

All I’m saying is that strength of schedule best takes into account what happened last year, not what will happen this year. Translation, what “was” is not always what “is.”