After being in the abyss for much of the last 14 years, expectations are high for the Oakland Raiders entering the 2016 season.
Since 2002 when the reached the Super Bowl only to lose 48-21 to Tampa Bay, the Raiders have cornered the market on terrible in going 66-145. The franchise had consecutive 8-8 seasons in 2010-2011 but has posted nary a winning record since 2002.
In head coach Jack Del Rio’s debut in 2015, Oakland improved from 3-13 to 7-9 but achieved something meaningful. The Raiders served notice to other teams that they were no longer an automatic victory for the opposition. For further evidence, in 2014, Oakland was outscored by an average of 12.4 points per contest. In 2015, the Raiders were outscored by an average of just 2.5 points per game.
While I’m not a believer in the term “moral victory,” I do believe some losses are more honorable than others and considering the Raiders had more than a decade full of dishonorable losses, you have to start somewhere.
The 2016 season, however, will come with expectations. Translation, being competitive will not be good enough.
After years of swinging and missing on first-round draft picks and free agent signings, Oakland has rebuilt its roster through the draft with cornerstones such as quarterback Derek Carr, defensive end Khalil Mack, wide receiver Amari Cooper and offensive lineman Gabe Jackson to name a few. Oakland has since used free agency to patch more holes such as offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele, linebacker Bruce Irvin, safety Reggie Nelson and cornerback Sean Smith.
On paper, the Raiders roster appears much better. Couple that with the fact that the rest of the AFC West appears to be trending down bodes well for Oakland. The Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos figure to have a Top 5 level defense despite the losses of defensive tackle Malik Jackson and linebacker Danny Trevathan. Though retired quarterback Peyton Manning was just a shell of himself, the Broncos will miss his leadership. Denver is still capable of a deep postseason run.
Kansas City’s path to an 11-5 season coupled with its first playoff win since 1994 was nothing short of amazing. The Chiefs recovered from a 1-5 start to win 11 straight despite losing its best offensive (Jamaal Charles) and defensive (Justin Houston) players to injury. While Andy Reid and Alex Smith are solid in their titles of head coach and quarterback respectively, both have likely reached their ceiling.
San Diego has a quarterback past his prime in Phillip Rivers and too many question marks to be a threat in the AFC West.
Another reason the Raiders are trendy pick to win 10 or more games and return to the postseason is the strength of schedule. Beyond the Chiefs and Broncos, Oakland faces just one team (Carolina) that reached the postseason in 2015.
In my judgment though, preseason strength of schedule is one of the most meaningless stats in all of creation. What a team did last season has zero bearing on what it will do this season.
The obvious answer to the Raiders getting back to the postseason is winning division games. Oakland went 3-3 in such contests last year. It would behoove the Raiders to go at least 4-2 against such foes this year.
However, I can think of two other stretches of games that will be defining:
Sept. 11 @ New Orleans
Sept. 18 vs. Atlanta
Sept. 25 @Tennessee
Oct. 2 @ Baltimore
The opponents do not look daunting as they combined for a 23-41 mark in 2015 but you are looking at three games in the Eastern Time Zone and for a West Coast team the adjustment is significant because the kickoffs are 1 p.m. local time but 10 a.m. Pacific Time. You can argue that the change is as mental as it is physical. Between 2003-2014, Oakland went 14-46 (28% winning percentage) in the Eastern Time Zone that represented 10 a.m. kickoff times. The Raiders went 2-3 in such games last season. That record is a small sample size that looks pedestrian but the last time Oakland won two such games in a season was 2005.
The key in this stretch is making sure they win the Atlanta and Tennessee games and getting no worse than a split against New Orleans and Baltimore. Atlanta is often good but very seldom great. The Falcons are also a dome team that struggles in outdoor games. Since entering the NFL in 2008, the Falcons are 52-20 at home in quarterback Matt Ryan’s starts 22-25 on the road. The Titans have quarterback Marcus Mariota as a strong building block but it’ll take time before they see any real progress from their rebuilding efforts.
New Orleans is in much the same category as Atlanta. The Saints are in rebuild mode and figures to be a mid-level club. Oakland is superior on paper but the venue alone makes this a high alert situation. In the Drew Brees quarterbacking era, the Saints are 51-29 at the Superdome and 43-37 on the road.
Baltimore went 5-11 last season but was eviscerated with injuries, most notably to quarterback Joe Flacco. While even a healthy Ravens team has question marks, this game comes on the back end of consecutive cross-country trips.
In this stretch, 2-2 is floor regarding expectations but 3-1 would pack a greater punch.
Oct. 23 @ Jacksonville
Oct. 30 @ Tampa Bay
Another stretch of back-to-back Eastern Time Zone games. The Raiders might as well spend two weeks in Florida without bothering to fly home. The opponents are not only in the same state but in similar positions, rebuilding but Jacksonville is closer to contention than Tampa being in the weak AFC South. The matchup against Tampa Bay would fall into the “look ahead” spot in that it comes the week before what figures to be a highly anticipated Primetime game at home against Denver. In this stretch, Oakland must do no worse than a split, 0-2 and kiss the playoffs goodbye.
The road back to the postseason is clear. Stay healthy and handle business.
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