2018 nonleague football schedule outlook: Justin-Siena

Reporter’s note: This is the second in a series looking at the nonleague
footballschedule breakdown of Napa Valley high school programs. Today,
the focus is Justin-Siena.

There are new worlds and their are Brave New Worlds.

For openers, the Justin-Siena High football team is in Year 3 of AC (After Cotruvo).
Long-time assistant and Justin graduate Brandon LaRocco took over Cotruvo and
the school parted ways in the offseason of 2015.

The Braves have gone 6-13 in LaRocco’s two seasons and it’s hard to gauge how
much they improve from a win-loss perspective in 2018. Though remaining in the
CIF North Coast Section, Justin will no longer compete in the Marin County Athletic
League, where it had been since the 2000-2001 school year. The Braves will now
compete in the newly formed Vine Valley Athletic League with Napa, Vintage,
American Canyon, Casa Grande, Petaluma and Sonoma.

Before each high school football season, one of the most comical things to listen to
is fans, parents and even coaches talking about their team’s strength of schedule or
someone else’s lack of schedule strength.

Each time I hear such sentiments I ask myself, “OK, and what exactly are you
basing your statement on?” Is it last year’s record? Is it based on how many starters
a team has returning? Even though an opponent is subpar now are you basing it on
remembering them as a powerhouse?

The formula used for breaking down the nonleague slate of Justin-Siena and is
looking at last season’s record and the collective mark of the past five seasons. In
addition, what are that team’s trends within the five-year period? Is that record
skewed by one really good or bad season? The problem with solely going by last
season’s record is that one season does not transfer to the next?

Justin returns a combined 14 starters but as challenging as the new league is, the
Braves will need to make some hay before facing its VVAL opponents. The Braves
host Napa on Oct. 5 for the league opener.

Here is a closer look at the Braves’ nonleague schedule. Justin’s opponents have a
five year record of 105-113 and 24-20 in 2017:

At Piedmont (Oakland)

August 17

Piedmont went 7-5 in 2017 and is 42-20 the last five years. That record is skewed
by a 12-1 campaign in 2014 but in that span, the Highlanders have not had a losing
season.

The two programs have a lot of head-to-head history. Justin won the 2013 (48-7)
contest. The two teams split in 2015, Piemont won the season opener (24-14) and
Justin won the NCS Div. IV playoff game (14-3) along with a 2015 game (35-21).
Piedmont has won the last two in decisive fashion, 48-14 in 2016 and 41-17 in 2017.

Vs. Healdsburg

August 24

Healdsburg was once a consistent winner in the NCS but that has not been the
case lately. The Greyhounds were 3-6 in 2017 and 18-34 the last five years. In that
span, Healdsburg has had just one winning season, 6-5 in 2013.

Vs. Armijo (Fairfield)

August 31

Armijo (Fairfield) has been perpetually bad. The 2017 season (3-6) and the last five
years (8-39) are no exception. The Indians last winning season came in 2005 (6-4)
and non-winning season in 2006 (5-5). The benefit Justin has playing this game is
that it is a Div. IV team playing a Div. I team. Armijo is a winnable game for the
Braves and a victory would bolster any potential postseason rankings. Another
compelling subplot to this game is that Justin, which is a private school, has some
Fairfield residents as enrollees.

Vs. Hercules

September 7

Hercules has been all over the map the last five years in going 24-20. In 2017, the
Titans went 11-3, reaching the NCS Div. IV title game before losing to Fortuna.
Hercules has had two nine-win seasons and a 2-8 campaign in 2014. The Titans
defeated Justin 14-7 in 2017.