Thursday, June 21, 2018

High school football nonleague schedule outlook: St. Helena Saints

This is the fifth in a series of stories focusing on the nonleague football
schedule among Napa Valley high schools. Today, we feature the St. Helena
Saints.


The St. Helena High football program has experienced mostly successful times in
head coach Brandon Farrell’s ten seasons.


Last season and the conclusion of the 2016 campaign, however, the Saints hit a
valley. Since Oct. 21, 2016, St. Helena is 3-8. The Saints only played eight games
last season with two being cancelled because of the California wildfires producing
poor air quality.


The good news is that help is on the way this season amd next in the form of a 10-0
JV team under coach Ian MacMillan, who was the Saints varsity coach from
2004-2006. Granted, success at that level comes with no guarantee but it gives
reason to hope the program can return to form it showed in the early-to-mid 2010s
sooner rather than later. St. Helena has gone 76-37 since Farrell arrived in 2008.


The challenge the Saints face is that other programs in the North Central League I
besides perennial powerhouse Middletown have elevated their performance. Fort
Bragg, which had also battled it out with Middletown and St. Helena for NCL I
supremacy in the recent past, went 3-8 in 2017 after going 30-6 from 2014-2016.
Lower Lake has gone 22-20 from 2014-2017 after a 11-48-1 stretch from 2008-2013.
Clear Lake has gone 11-10 the last two years. In 2015, the Cardinals had to forfeit
two of their last three games. Kelseyville has going 17-7 the last two seasons after
recording a 3-7 mark in head coach Erik Larsen’s first season in 2015.


Cloverdale and Willits have been in “stock down” mode. Cloverdale has gone 5-15
the last two years after a 11-9 stretch in 2014-2015. Willits has not recorded a
winning season since 2012.


Before each high school football season, one of the most comical things to listen to
is fans, parents and even coaches talking about their team’s strength of schedule
or someone else’s lack of schedule strength.


Each time I hear such sentiments I ask myself, “OK, and what exactly are you
basing your statement on?” Is it last year’s record? Is it based on how many starters
a team has returning? Even though an opponent is subpar now are you basing it on
remembering them as a powerhouse of past seasons?


The formula used for breaking down the nonleague slate of St. Helena is looking at
last season’s record and the collective mark of the past five seasons. In addition,
what are that team’s trends within the five-year period? Is that record skewed by
one really good or bad season? The problem with solely going by last season’s
record is that one season does not transfer to the next?


The Saints’ nonleague opponents went a combined 15-17 in 2017 and have a
five-year mark of 67-97. Here’s a look in alphabetical order:


VS. ARCATA


Aug. 18


Arcata has compiled a 14-39 record the last five seasons but if the last two seasons
were a stock market report, they would be trending up. The Tigers went 1-28 from
2013-2015 but are 13-11 since Jamal Jones took over as head coach. Arcata had
back-to-back winless seasons in 2013-2014. From a 34-33 NCS Div. IV playoff loss
to Justin on Nov. 23, 2012 to a 48-42 overtime win in the 2015 season opener, the
Tigers had a 21-game losing streak.


AT SIR FRANCIS DRAKE


Aug. 25


Drake (San Anselmo) has been a mess the last five seasons (15-37) and 2017 was
no exception with the Pirates going 2-7. Drake went 6-5 in 2013 but 3-16 the
previous two seasons. The two teams met in each of the last two years with the
Saints winning by a combined score of 93-41.


VS. WINTERS


Aug. 31

Winters has a 38-21 record the last five seasons but is 8-13 the last two campaigns
after going 30-8 from 2013-2014. The warriors won back-to-back Northern Section
titles, Div. III in 2013 and Div. IV in 2014. Winters reached the NS Div. IV semifinals
in 2015. The two programs have met in each of the last four seasons with St. Helena
winning all three by a combined 22 points. Last season’s scheduled matchup was
cancelled because of the California wildfires.

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