Sunday, June 2, 2019

Nonleague football outlook: Justin-Siena Braves

This is the third story in a series featuring nonleague schedules for
Napa Valley high school football teams. Today, the focus is the
Justin-Siena Braves:


As he enters his fourth season as head coach, the Justin-Siena High
football program has a full slate of players that have only known
Brandon Larocco as the head man. LaRocco, who was a long-time
assistant and former player of previous head coach Rich Cotruvo.
To refresh your memory, Cotruvo and the school parted ways after
19 seasons (1997-2015).


The Braves are coming off a season in which they vacated the Marin
County Athletic League after 18 years and joined the newly formed
Vine Valley Athletic League with fellow Napa County schools
Vintage, Napa and American Canyon along with Sonoma Valley,
Petaluma and Casa Grande from Sonoma County.


Justin went 5-7 overall and 1-6 in the VVAL. Three of those setbacks
were by a combined 10 points. The road gets no easier considering
that the Braves lost quarterback Barrett Donohoe, who masked a lot
of weaknesses, to graduation. VVAL champion Vintage appears to
have a strong structure from top-to-bottom. American Canyon and
Casa Grande are not going away. Also, Napa is not likely to go
winless as it did a year ago. Justin’s lone VVAL win came against
Napa, 36-32. The good news is that the nonleague schedule is
friendly. In which case the key is, make it rain for the nonleague
slate and get what you can in VVAL contests.


The Braves have gone 11-20 in LaRocco’s three seasons. Before
each high school football season, one of the most comical things to
listen to is fans, parents and even coaches talking about their team’s
strength of schedule or someone else’s lack of schedule strength.


Each time I hear such sentiments I ask myself, “OK, and what
exactly are you basing your statement on?” Is it last year’s record?
Is it based on how many starters a team has returning? Even though
an opponent is subpar now are you basing it on remembering them
as a powerhouse?


The formula used for breaking down the nonleague is looking at
last season’s record and the collective mark of the past five seasons.
In addition, what are that team’s trends within the five-year period?
Is that record skewed by one really good or bad season? The problem
with solely going by last season’s record is that one season does not
transfer to the next?

On the surface, a favorable nonleague slate awaits Justin. The Braves
opponents went 10-23 in 2018 and are a combined 80-125, the previous
five years. Here’s a closer look.


AUGUST 23


VS. PIEDMONT


The two schools have met seven times in the previous five years.
Piedmont has a 5-2 edge and has won all five regular season meetings.
Justin, however, has beaten the Highlanders in the two postseason
meetings, once in 2014 (14-3) and again in 2018 (53-28). Piedmont has
been checkered the last five years, going 12-1 and 9-3 in 2014 and 2015
respectively followed by a combined 20-16 the previous three years.


AUGUST 30


AT HEALDSBURG


The Greyhounds have a rich football history but 2018 is not one they
will want to save in the archives. After just two games, Healdsburg
football closed up shop on the 2018 campaign because of not having
enough players. The two games they played were a 41-0 loss to Sir
Francis Drake (San Anselmo) and a 61-0 loss to Justin. If you’re
scoring at home, that is two defeats by a combined score of 122-0
against teams that compiled a 9-13 record, not exactly Clemson or
Alabama. Healdsburg, which was a long-time member of the Sonoma
County League will compete in the Freelance League. Even before
last season, the Greyhounds were in a downward spiral, having gone
11-31 the last five years. Half of those wins came in a 5-6 season in
2016.


SEPTEMBER 6


AT ARMIJO (FAIRFIELD)


This matchup is compelling on one front in that Justin has some
student-athletes from Fairfield. Larocco himself grew up in Fairfield.
This will mark the second time in as many seasons that the two teams
have met. The Braves won last year’s contest 40-14. The Indians last
non-losing season was 2006 (5-5) and last winning season was 2005
(8-2). Armijo is 13-36 the last five years and went 4-6 last year.


SEPTEMBER 13


VS. ARCHBISHOP RIORDAN (SAN FRANCISCO)

The Crusaders have been no strangers to playing Napa teams in
nonleague because they played Napa High in 2017 (28-13 loss) and
2018 (40-31 win). The latter was Riordan’s lone win of the season.
Riordan has gone 15-38 the last five seasons with that record being
skewed by a 9-4 mark in 2015.

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