Re-examining the busted draft pick theory

It is strange how some people have a clearly defined idea for a
matter that can be highly subjective.

The term “bust,” which is most commonly used in sports toward
a player drafted very highly that did not meet expectations. If you
are any kind of sports enthusiast (fan, journalist, blogger), you
have gone round and round with someone when discussing a
particular player and whether or not he fits the description.

The NFL has 32 teams and seven rounds, plus compensatory
picks. The NHL has seven rounds with 31 picks in each one.
Major League Baseball has 40 rounds, plus compensatory picks.
The NBA has 30 teams with just two rounds, totaling 60 picks.

Since the MLB and NHL drafts are not in the spotlight like the NFL
and NBA, it’s harder for me to give examples. However, there is
considerable overlap.

I’m not as cut and dried as many people when it comes to labeling
busts. In the NFL, for instance, I will never label a guy drafted after
the third round a bust because teams are not committing much
money to them. In those rounds, you are mainly looking for depth
and if a guy becomes a starter, great, but if he gets cut at the end
of training camp, not a big deal.

The NBA is a different animal in that the first 14 picks are
considered lottery selections, meaning the teams that did not make
the postseason. Those picks I am going to hold to a higher
standard because they are expected to contribute right away,
primarily because the team is counting on them because it was
already bad. The ones taken between 15-30, I’m not going to judge
as stringent because they are going to playoff teams with proven
veterans. Therefore, they are not being counted on immediately.
The second round picks are stricken from the bust label, similar
to NFL players taken after the third round.

If you are drafted in the first or second round in the NFL, NHL or
MLB, ideally he should be an impact player that performs at an
All-Star/All-Pro level. At the very least, however, you should expect
him to be a starter and perform like one. I apply the same theory to
NBA lottery picks.

The older I get the less I allow the expectations of others to color my
views. It is often said how the draft is an inexact science. Cliches
aside, for every first round NFL draft pick that had Hall of Fame
careers like Jerry Rice, Peyton Manning, Barry Sanders, etc. there
are first rounders that were busts like JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf,
Ki-Jana Carter, etc.

Then there are late round picks that nobody knew like Tom Brady,
Terrell Davis, etc., sixth rounders that had Hall of Fame careers.

Russell and Leaf are no-brainers to give the bust label. They flamed
out of the NFL after three seasons. Leaf washed out after five years.
Carter played ten seasons but was often injured. So it begs the
question of how good could he have been if he got injured? Carter,
however, was given ten years to perform and failed to deliver.

The athletes that people often give bust labels to that I do not agree
with are Alex Smith, Joe Smith and Christian Laettner. Alex Smith
was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2005 draft. He has played for three
different teams (San Francisco, Kansas City and Washington) and
struggled in his first five seasons in part because of the 49er
organization’s ineptitude. Coached later by Jim Harbaugh (San
Francisco) and Andy Reid (Kansas City), Smith had productive
years and at times blossomed (as evidenced by three Pro Bowl
seasons).

Joe Smith was the No. 1 overall pick in the 1995 NBA draft by the
Golden State Warriors. Through he played for 13 different teams,
Smith played 16 NBA seasons. He had double figure scoring
averages in ten of those seasons, including his nine in his first
11 seasons.

Christian Laettner, who is considered one of the best college
basketball players in history, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 1992
NBA draft by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Laettner played 14
seasons for six different teams. Laettner averaged 12.8 points per
contest and double figures in nine of those seasons, including the
first seven.

The common denominator that I view in those three individuals is
that the bust label does not apply. Granted, they did not live up to
the value of their draft status but it’s not like they were bums either.
They would not have been in the league that long if they were. If
you want to make the argument that they failed to live up to
advanced billing, I can’t dispute but there is a difference between
that and someone who flames out after three years. Also, I don’t
blame the player, I blame the organization that was delusional
enough to value them so much.

Sometimes, labeling busts is a sure thing, as sure as Monday
comes after Sunday. Other times, however, it is not so clear.