Sports analytics have become all the rage in both college and professional sports. Before we know it they could seep into high school sports. Who knows, maybe they already have. Of course, I’m half kidding but I digress.
Analytics are a way to measure a team’s performance using various stats on both a broad and narrow spectrum so as to help a team gain an edge. If I really spent time explaining what analytics are and how they are valued, well, I’d be better off trying to explain how far away Jupiter is from the Earth.
As it relates to teams, you hear two different narratives for a Major League Baseball season. When the calendar is in April or May, you constantly hear words like, “It’s early, it’s only April, it’s a marathon not a sprint.” Then you’ll hear another spectrum of fans grovel: “Every game counts the same whether it’s April or September!”
Both narratives have merit but understand one thing, no team has ever gone 162-0 or 0-162 and with rare exception will a team win or lose the division race in April or May. The key is simply do not lose it.
If you really want to establish a conservative baseline for a successful MLB season, follow this line of thinking: “If a team wins at least half of its series and never gets swept, it will win at least 81 games.” By my math, that’s a .500 season. Of course, if you are a fan of that team, you want to be better than 81-81. The point is, that benchmark is a place to start.
Process that stat for just a moment. The vast majority of series are three games, on rare occasions there will be a two or four game series but primarily they are three games. The season is 162 games, divide that number by three and that is 54 series. Then, half of 54 is 27. From there, multiply 27 times two and you get to 54 wins. Keep in mind, the other half of the equation is never getting swept, which means you are not winning the series but you win at least one game. That is 27 more wins, which means 54 + 27 =81.
Granted, no team’s season is going to follow exactly that script but it’s a good way to establish a baseline for success.
Where can a team can increase that win total? For openers, maybe it wins more than 27 series. Also, on occasion a team will either sweep a series or get swept. The key is to have the number of series as the “sweeper” outnumber the series as the “sweepee.”
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