Things to think about before drafting a quarterback

NFL teams in the market for a quarterback grapple with the question of “should we draft, trade or sign one as a free agent?”

It is akin to shopping for a car and asking, “Do I buy it new, used or get a certified pre owned one?”

You’ve heard the cynics, “For every Peyton Manning, there’s JaMarcus Russell.” Manning is a future Hall of Famer while Russell became the biggest bust in NFL history. I can come up with examples at every position but in the interest of time, I won’t.

If you look at recent trends, the last ten years have featured 26 first-round draft picks at quarterback with only Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and perhaps Joe Flacco becoming elite-to-semi-elite franchise signal-callers. I give a mulligan to last year’s first round picks (Jared Goff and Carson Wentz) because it is too soon to draw conclusions after one season. The same could be said about the 2015 draft class of Jameius Winston and Marcus Mariota.

Then there are quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Mark Sanchez, and Blake Bortles, who are tweeners: not bad enough to be labelled busts but not good enough to be called franchise quarterbacks. Then there are busts like Russell, Josh Freeman, and Johnny Manziel.

The other extremes are Tom Brady and Tony Romo, sixth-round draft pick and undrafted free agent respectively. This is not about comparing the two. True, the recently retired Romo does not have the championship pedigree of Brady but he had a solid 11-year career for the Dallas Cowboys, something you seldom expect from undrafted free agents.

No team is going to be perfect on its draft picks but missing on a first rounder, especially quarterback, can set franchises in reverse. The biggest reason is because first round picks make more money than later round picks. The higher a player is picked, the greater the financial risk.

First round draft picks make up to $10 million in one year with the average being about $5 million. The amount varies based on where a player is picked within the round. Fourth round picks will make an average of about $550,000 in their first season. Seventh rounders will make an average of about $40,000 in their first season. Players drafted in the first four rounds generally get a 2-4 year contract and are given a longer shelf life to prove they can be viable contributors. Those picked in rounds 5-7, the only guaranteed money are bonuses, which means you have to make the team to get paid.

Missing on a quarterback, however, in the first round is more costly than any other position. For example, if you draft an offensive tackle in the first round and the player is not performing, you can perhaps convert him to guard. You might slide an outside linebacker to defensive end. You might move a defensive end to defensive tackle. You might move a cornerback to safety. These players can also contribute on special teams. You might not get the return on your investment that you hoped but maybe with the position change, he becomes a viable contributor. With a quarterback, however, it is either he becomes your productive starter or he flames out.

The narrative you hear about quarterback play in the NFL is that it is a “quarterback driven league” or “quarterback is the most important position on the team.” You can win Super Bowls with mid-level quarterbacks like Jim McMahon, Trent Dilfer, Phil Simms or Brad Johnson. Those quarterbacks, however, were backed by all-time great defenses. Otherwise, trying to win championships without top-flight quarterbacks is career suicide.

The top three quarterbacks, in no particular order, in the 2017 NFL draft class are considered to be Clemson’s Deshaun Watson, North Carolina’s Mitchell Trubisky and Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer.

All three come with leeriness. Despite leading Clemson to a National Championship victory over Alabama, the question on Watson is while he is a great athlete with a winning pedigree, can he become a pro style quarterback when it comes to throwing from the pocket and reading defenses? For all of his greatness, he threw 17 interceptions. With Kizer, for all of his talent, cynics will point to Notre Dame’s 4-8 record. That argument, however, is questionable because Kizer did everything he could to help his team win.

Trubisky is the most NFL ready because of his arm strength coupled with accuracy but is 13 starts enough of a sample size to evaluate? Watson and Kizer are similar to a lot of modern day college quarterbacks operating out of the shotgun running zone-read option plays that involve a quarterback running game. Those plays are a nice changeup in the NFL but will not have a long shelf life.

Reading defenses in the passing game is a much different animal with option based offenses versus pro style offenses. While the shotgun formation in the NFL has become more mainstream, quarterbacks also line up under center more often. Reading defenses in an option based offense in the passing game is “drop back to throw, if your first read, maybe your second, is not open, take off and run.” In a pro style offense, quarterbacks are asked to go through all of their progressions (as many as five) before running.

These quarterbacks are also labelled as “projects” that will take time. The problem is, NFL coaches are not given the luxury of time. It’s either produce a winner or you are out of a job.

Though, I’m a big believer in not reaching for a quarterback in the first round, drafting one as often as possible is a prudent move whether it’s in the first round or seventh round, even if you have a future Hall-of-Famer. You don’t do it because you are looking for the next (insert random great quarterback).

There’s the obvious reason of preparing for injuries but the layer runs deeper. You do it to acquire assets that are good bargaining chips. Teams will panic if a starting quarterback goes down because of an injury. As a result, they will overpay to get a replacement either in a trade or as a free agent. Even if your team has Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan, Derek Carr, etc., you draft one to acquire assets. If you miss on a fifth rounder, so be it. No harm, no foul.

Quarterback is undeniably the most important position but there are two rules to live by: a) Don’t reach for one in the first round but b) Draft them as often as possible regardless of round.