One of the more frequently uttered phrases in the English language is “sample size.”
Considering that Thanksgiving is two days away, you might sample a plate or five. The notion can also be related to extrapolating what might happen in the future. Another high school football season is in the books among Napa Valley teams. The landscape will change next year for four of the six schools. Calistoga and St. Helena remain status quo in the North Central League III and I respectively. The former is a league fielding 8-man football.
The change part comes involving Justin-Siena, Napa, Vintage and American Canyon. Justin will part ways with the Marin County Athletic League, where it has been since 2000. Napa and Vintage will vacate the Monticello Empire League, where each has been since 1975. American Canyon will leave the Solano County athletic Conference, where it has been since the school opened in 2010.
Beginning the 2018-2019 school year, the landscape will change dramatically for Napa, Vintage and American Canyon. To a lesser degree it will change for Justin as well. For Napa, Vintage and American Canyon, no more trips East on Interstate 80 as the move from the CIF Sac Joaquin section to the North Coast Section, unless they preserve any longstanding matchups between MEL and SCAC combatants. There are a few worth retaining but that is another story for another time. For Justin, unless they retain any MCAL teams as nonleague foes, no more trips to Marin County. That would also fall into the “another story for another time” category. Justin moved from the SJS to NCS in 2000.
Justin, Napa, Vintage and American Canyon will have Sonoma, Casa Grande and Petaluma as its league foes. The name of the new league is not known at this juncture. By my own admission, I have followed Sonoma, Casa Grande and Petaluma very little because I have had no reason.
Here’s where the “sample size” theory enters the equation. I generally think the previous ten seasons (from 2008-2017) are a good indicator on gauging a program’s trajectory. So I decided to look up the year-by-year success in the aforementioned span of Sonoma, Casa Grande and Petaluma in addition to taking note of the aforementioned Napa schools. I also used the “project a matchup” tool on calpreps.com. OK, so it’s not exactly Madden EA Sports but based on numbers crunching, it projects how a matchup would have transpired had the two teams played. My advice, just take it for entertainment value, nothing more nothing less. Here’s a closer look going alphabetically:
American Canyon
For the Wolves, the sample size dates back only to 2011 because that was the first season the school had varsity sports. Since that year, American Canyon has gone 55-28 with six SCAC titles. The Wolves also reached the SJS Div. III semi-finals twice (2012 and 2016). American Canyon has a pre-established history with Vintage and Sonoma. The Wolves played Vintage the last two seasons, winning the 2016 meeting 42-14 and losing the 2017 matchup 28-14. American Canyon played Sonoma in 2011 and 2012. The Wolves lost the 2011 meeting 42-28 and whitewashed the Dragons 45-0 in 2012.
Calpreps.com predicted American Canyon would have beaten Napa (21-17), Justin (40-7), Casa Grande (35-17), Petaluma (41-31 and Sonoma (44-3) in 2017.
Casa Grande
The Gauchos are 77-44-1 since 2008, going 11-9 in the NCS Div. II playoffs. Casa Grande has three league titles in that span, twice as members of the Sonoma County League and one in the North Bay League, where it moved in 2013. The Gauchos reached the NCS D-II title game in 2013, losing to Miramonte 41-28. Casa Grande lost to eventual section champs on two other occasions (Concord 2010; Clayton Valley 2014). Despite its continued postseason appearances, however, the Gauchos have gone 19-28 since 2013. Casa Grande has played Napa head to head seven times in ten years, going 2-5. Casa Grande lost to Petaluma 20-14 in 2017.
Calpreps.com predicted Casa Grande would have beaten Justin (31-19) and Sonoma (35-14) but losses to American Canyon (35-17), Napa (28-8) and Vintage (31-8) had the teams matched up.
Justin-Siena
The Braves have gone 67-50 since 2008 with three NCS Div. IV titles and a runnerup in 2009. Justin has little history to speak of against its league opponents to be. The Braves played Sonoma in 2002 with the Dragons winning 34-13. That season, Justin went 7-6, reaching the NCS Class A title game before losing to Ferndale. Sonoma went 7-2-2, reaching the NCS 3A playoffs. Despite their lengthy run of success, the Braves have gone a combined 6-13 the past two seasons.
Calpreps.com predicted the Braves to beat Sonoma (27-17) with losses to Petaluma (44-21), Casa Grande (31-19), Vintage (35-0), Napa (31-6) and American Canyon (40-7) had the teams played.
Napa
In a sense, the Indians are in a similar situation to Justin, in that they have hit a dip in the road after a long run of success. Since 2008, Napa has gone 75-37 with four MEL titles. The Indians won the SJS Div. I title in 2007. Napa recorded playoff victories in 2008, 2010, and 2015. The Indians, however, missed the postseason in 2017 for the first time since 2001, going 3-6. Being archrivals of Vintage, those two schools have a long history. Napa and Casa Grande played seven times since 2008 with the Indians winning five times. Vintage defeated Napa 14-7, winning the Big Game for the first time since 2005.
Calpreps.com predicted Napa to beat Casa Grande (28-8), Petaluma (28-26), Sonoma (38-0) and Justin (31-6) but a loss to American Canyon (21-17) had the teams met.
Petaluma
Since 2008, the Trojans have a 61-48 record with seven postseason appearances, going 2-7. Both of those postseason wins came in 2009 when the Trojans reached the semifinals of the NCS Div. II playoffs, losing to Eureka which won the title. Petaluma also lost to eventual NCS Div. II champion Miramonte in 2013. Petaluma played Vintage in 2014 and 2015, losing 42-0 and 49-18 respectively.
Calpreps.com predicted Petaluma to beat Sonoma (48-14) and Justin (44-21) but losses to Napa (28-26), Vintage (38-21) and American Canyon (41-31) if the teams played each other in 2017.
Sonoma
The Dragons have gone 40-61 since 2008 with just two postseason appearances, both losses (44-7 to Cardinal Newman in 2012; 49-10 to Acalanes in 2013). Despite the fact that Justin gets some kids from Sonoma, the schools have very little history. To that end, the matchups have some intrigue. Sonoma played American Canyon in 2011 and 2012, winning 42-28 followed by a 45-0 loss the next season.
Calpreps.com predicted losses to Casa Grande (35-14), Petaluma (48-14), Justin (27-17), Napa (38-0), Vintage (46-0) and American Canyon (44-3).
Vintage
The Crushers have gone just 43-59 since 2008 with five sub-.500 seasons, three break even years and two North of .500. There have been just two postseason appearances in that span but it does not speak to the current trajectory. Vintage went 7-2 in 2017 (best since 2000), giving all the appearances of being on the upswing. The Crushers played Petaluma in 2014 and 2015, winning both matchups decisively 42-0 and 49-18. In 2017, Vintage defeated Napa 14-7 and American Canyon 28-14.
Calpreps.com predicted Vintage to defeat Justin (35-0), Casa Grande (31-8), Petaluma (38-21) and Sonoma (46-0) if the teams played.
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