When a team’s season goes sideways, you hear the age old question, “Do you continue
to try winning games or do you continue to lose games to attain a higher draft pick?”
to try winning games or do you continue to lose games to attain a higher draft pick?”
Though I’m not here to tell you how you should feel about the matter, I acknowledge that
both sides have a legitimate point. However, I will never believe in losing to improve draft
status.
both sides have a legitimate point. However, I will never believe in losing to improve draft
status.
As a Bay Area native, such has been a hot topic with the Oakland Raiders and San
Francisco 49ers seeing their seasons resemble a train falling off the tracks. The two teams
entered Week 16 with records of 3-11 and 4-10 respectively. The two teams played each
other earlier this season in a Thursday Night primetime game with the 49ers railroading the
Raiders 34-3. As of this writing, the Raiders would have the No. 1 pick in the draft while
the 49ers would be picking No. 4.
Francisco 49ers seeing their seasons resemble a train falling off the tracks. The two teams
entered Week 16 with records of 3-11 and 4-10 respectively. The two teams played each
other earlier this season in a Thursday Night primetime game with the 49ers railroading the
Raiders 34-3. As of this writing, the Raiders would have the No. 1 pick in the draft while
the 49ers would be picking No. 4.
I’m not going to expound on extensive reasons why the two teams have struggled but in a
nutshell, the 49ers lost their starting quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo) and running back
(Jerick McKinnon) to knee injuries. The former in Week 3, the latter in training camp. The
team has had a myriad of other injuries, too many to list. The Raiders entered the season
with the ballyhooed return of Jon Gruden as head coach. The thought at the time was that
the team had a talented roster that underachieved under former head coach Jack Del Rio.
The Raiders have gotten rid of (either trade or outright release) of players drafted by now
former general manager Reggie McKenzie. Most notably former defensive player of the
year Khalil Mack and No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper. Mack has helped the Chicago
Bears win the NFC North while Cooper has helped the Dallas Cowboys position themselves
for an NFC East title.
nutshell, the 49ers lost their starting quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo) and running back
(Jerick McKinnon) to knee injuries. The former in Week 3, the latter in training camp. The
team has had a myriad of other injuries, too many to list. The Raiders entered the season
with the ballyhooed return of Jon Gruden as head coach. The thought at the time was that
the team had a talented roster that underachieved under former head coach Jack Del Rio.
The Raiders have gotten rid of (either trade or outright release) of players drafted by now
former general manager Reggie McKenzie. Most notably former defensive player of the
year Khalil Mack and No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper. Mack has helped the Chicago
Bears win the NFC North while Cooper has helped the Dallas Cowboys position themselves
for an NFC East title.
In the NFL, you heard slogans like “Suck for Luck” in reference to the Stanford quarterback
Andrew Luck, who wound up getting drafted No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 2012.
The other popular slogan was “Blow It Off For Goff” in reference to California quarterback
Jared Goff, who was drafted No. 1 overall by the Los Angeles Rams in 2016.
Andrew Luck, who wound up getting drafted No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 2012.
The other popular slogan was “Blow It Off For Goff” in reference to California quarterback
Jared Goff, who was drafted No. 1 overall by the Los Angeles Rams in 2016.
Most NFL mock drafts believe that Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa, who is the younger
brother of Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa, and Houston defensive tackle Ed
Oliver are the top two picks in the 2019 draft.
brother of Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa, and Houston defensive tackle Ed
Oliver are the top two picks in the 2019 draft.
Teams that try to lose employ a strategy known as “tanking.” I have been on my soapbox for
years against that approach. While I understand the fans’ excitement for potentially drafting
a great player, it is also Fool’s Gold. You are pinning your hopes on a player that has played
nary a down in the NFL. Translation, the player is just as likely to become a bust as well as
an All-Pro. Granted, the term “bust” is a subjective definition but you get the idea.
years against that approach. While I understand the fans’ excitement for potentially drafting
a great player, it is also Fool’s Gold. You are pinning your hopes on a player that has played
nary a down in the NFL. Translation, the player is just as likely to become a bust as well as
an All-Pro. Granted, the term “bust” is a subjective definition but you get the idea.
The “lose for a higher draft choice” approach is also flawed because no self-respecting
professional (front office, coach, player) is going to purposely attempt to lose games because
they have livelihoods to keep afloat, just like any working class professional in society. It’s
pretty simple, you fail at your job, you won’t have one.
professional (front office, coach, player) is going to purposely attempt to lose games because
they have livelihoods to keep afloat, just like any working class professional in society. It’s
pretty simple, you fail at your job, you won’t have one.
Also, if a team has a bad win-loss record, they don’t need to “try” to lose games, they have
proven they are bad enough to lose games on their own merit. If your team is, say 3-13,
chances are you do not have just one area of weakness on your roster, you likely have several.
proven they are bad enough to lose games on their own merit. If your team is, say 3-13,
chances are you do not have just one area of weakness on your roster, you likely have several.
The constant narrative one hears is that teams that are consistently bad a) should eventually
get their pick right and b) as how could a team be so bad for so long that they are picking
that high?
get their pick right and b) as how could a team be so bad for so long that they are picking
that high?
Therein also lies the answer. For openers, I don’t give a damn if a team is picking first or
21st, they’d better get it right because first round draft picks command a lot of money,
some more so than others. Secondly, any competent front office and scouting staff will
generally get more picks right than not regardless of draft position.
21st, they’d better get it right because first round draft picks command a lot of money,
some more so than others. Secondly, any competent front office and scouting staff will
generally get more picks right than not regardless of draft position.
If you pick a potentially great player, you still need players around him. So maybe the
aforementioned Bosa becomes Lawrence Taylor. Even if he does, let’s also remember that
Taylor had talented players around him like Leonard Marshall, George Martin, Carl Banks
and Harry Carson.
aforementioned Bosa becomes Lawrence Taylor. Even if he does, let’s also remember that
Taylor had talented players around him like Leonard Marshall, George Martin, Carl Banks
and Harry Carson.
I don’t care what round you are picking, there is value to be had. Look at the Raiders,
specifically quarterback Derek Carr and starting guard Gabe Jackson. Most people would
consider them to be the Raiders best players. Carr was a second round pick while Jackson
was a third round selection. Granted, Jackson was recently placed on injured reserve but
has had a pretty solid career. Look at the 49ers, their two best are tight end George Kittle
and defensive end DeForest Buckner. Kittle was a fifth round pick and was selected to
the Pro Bowl. While Buckner was a first-round pick, he was the seventh pick overall and
was selected to the Pro Bowl as an alternate.
specifically quarterback Derek Carr and starting guard Gabe Jackson. Most people would
consider them to be the Raiders best players. Carr was a second round pick while Jackson
was a third round selection. Granted, Jackson was recently placed on injured reserve but
has had a pretty solid career. Look at the 49ers, their two best are tight end George Kittle
and defensive end DeForest Buckner. Kittle was a fifth round pick and was selected to
the Pro Bowl. While Buckner was a first-round pick, he was the seventh pick overall and
was selected to the Pro Bowl as an alternate.
Another reason some people get obsessed with having the No. 1 overall pick is to become
a trade partner that can move down in the draft to acquire more draft capital. While I can
understand that sentiment, a) You still need to draft the right players and b) If you don’t
have the No. 1 pick,. There’s nothing that precludes you from trading up to acquire it.
a trade partner that can move down in the draft to acquire more draft capital. While I can
understand that sentiment, a) You still need to draft the right players and b) If you don’t
have the No. 1 pick,. There’s nothing that precludes you from trading up to acquire it.
It will always be my belief that tanking for higher draft picks is bad Kool Aid.
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