Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Intriguing matchup awaits between AC and Napa

Sometimes, there are situations where a matchup does not
qualify as a rivalry but it is intriguing enough in the moment to
where you think there is potential. 


With Napa Valley high school football rivarlies, Napa and Vintage
stands alone because they are three miles apart and have played
continuously since 1972. It has gone through periods of being
compelling to unwatchable one the field but because it is The Big
Game, it has your attention. 


There have been small school versions of rivalries like St. Helena/
Justin-Siena and St. Helena/Calistoga but those series no longer
exist and even when they did, they only moved the needle with a
small segment of people. Be honest, if you were from Napa or
Vintage, you had passing interest at best. 


More recently, Vintage and American Canyon, while it will never
replace the Napa/Vintage rivalry, has become compelling on some
level. Why? Because American Canyon did not open its doors until
2010, before which time a large portion of American Canyon-ites
went to Vintage for the most part, with a smattering going elsewhere. 


Looking at the high school football schedule, Memorial Stadium in
Napa, CA, will be the site for what figures to be a matchup that is
both compelling and pivotal at the same time. 


The two combatants are the American Canyon Wolves and Napa
Grizzlies. Kickoff time 7 p.m. If you are not attending in person, you
can tune into 1440 AM KVON or listen online at kvon.com, shoutout
Ira Smith and Kent Fry. 


To set the scene, the Vintage Crushers, who won the Vine Valley
Athletic League last season, have what both of these teams want.
Vintage (4-1) visits a Petaluma team that has lost five in a row.
Granted, the game has to get played on the field but unless the
Crushers team bus gets hit by a blimp, Vintage wins going away. 


I hesitate to call Friday’s aforementioned contest an elimination
game for the VVAL title. However, the winner can still control its
fate to upend Vintage for the title but the loser would need to win
out and hope for help that it may not get. American Canyon is
6-0 overall and 1-0 in VVALL while Napa is 4-1 overall and 1-0
in VVAL. Their common opponent is Sonoma, which American
Canyon beat 68-0 and Napa defeated 62-19. Let’s see, based
on that logic, the Wolves should win by 25 points. I’m kidding of
course, just throwing shade at those who believe that logic
when every game is its own DNA. 


Both teams are compelling stories for different reasons. Napa is
on its fourth head coach, Richie Wessman, in as many seasons.
The Grizzlies went 0-for-2018 and entered the 2019 campaign
3-16 in the last two seasons. I have not met Wessman but to
this point, the reviews have been quite good. 


American Canyon is in its second year under head coach John
Montante, who is the fourth head coach in the school’s ten year
history. American Canyon has continuously won despite change.
Montante’s Wolves started last season 0-4 in part because of a
brutal nonleague schedule but has gone 12-2 since that time. I
saw Montante’s Wolves up close last season. He appears to be
settling in as the American Canyon lead dog. 


Both teams have thoroughly dominated their foes to date.
American Canyon has won by an average score of 35.1-6.0
while the Grizzlies have won by an average margin of 36.8-11.8.
The statistical domination also illustrates because American
Canyon has outgained its opponents by an average of 394.2-
111.7 yards per game. Offensively, the Wolves have enjoyed
two games of going North of 400 yards and three others where
they were on the cusp, as is between 390 and 400. Defensively,
the Wolves have not given up a single point in eight quarters,
only one opponent has gained over 200 yards and three
others failed to reach 100, including the last two. 


The Grizzlies have outgained their foes by an average of 343.2
-264.8. What skews that average is Napa being outgained 338
-217 in total yardage in a 20-14 overtime defeat against
Nevada Union. Against the other four opponents, all wins, that
average is 374.8-246.5. Napa has one 400 yard game on
offense and three others over 340. 


Yards per point is a modern day metric commonly used by
college football analyst Phil Steele. The lower your average on
offense, the better because it denotes maximizing productivity.
The higher your average on defense, the better because it
reflects giving up yards but not points. American Canyon’s
offense averages 11.2 yards per point while the defense gives
up 43.5 yards per point. For Napa, its offense is averaging 9.3
yards per point while its defense yields 22.4 yards per point. 


While the dominance of both teams has been impressive to
date, it comes with skepticism by some people because of
the lack of strength in schedule. I’m not saying it is good, bad
or indifferent because all youngsters can do is play their
assigned opponent. However, with the schedule not being
strong, skeptics will follow. 


Calpreps.com, which covers high school football and provides
rankings, American Canyon’s strength of schedule is only
slightly higher than what Napa possesses, minus-20.4 to
minus-22.2 as it pertains to all ten of their opponents. If you
base it solely on teams, they have played, American Canyon’s
opponents have an average rating of minus-16.65 while
Napa’s foes have compiled an average rating of minus-22.0. 


While rankings can be full of conjecture, Napa, which is an
NCS Div. II team, took its slings and arrows for scheduling Div.
VI Middletown, Div. IV Vallejo and Div. I Armijo. Middletown is
an annual small school powerhouse while Vallejo and Armijo
have struggled mightily in the past decade plus. 

Both teams will finish the 2019 regular season campaign with
a stellar win-loss record but the winner will have a better case
for dismissing perceived narratives. 

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