Monday, July 16, 2018

Football will not die, it will simply change demographically

Sometimes you know what you will see and hear before events take place.
As another football season beckons, prepare for another round of storylines and talking
heads addressing the decline in football participation across the nation. The other portion
of the narrative will be centered around the future of the sport. Some people think the sport
will disappear entirely within the next 10-20 years. While there are reasons for concern
about the future of the sport, I find the notion that football will disappear to be based more
on emotion than intellect.
In case you have been on an island contemplating a coconut, participation in football at
both the youth and high school level has declined by about five percent, give or take a few
decimal points, over the past decade. That number is likely to increase, it’s just a question
of how much. The drop off can be attributed mounting concerns about the potential for
traumatic brain injuries leading to long lasting health problems.
Over the past decade, many retired NFL players have come forward openly about the
aftermath of concussions sustained as players have led to memory and cognitive issues such
as dementia, Alzheimer’s, depression and CTE (chronic traumatic encephalopathy).
News reports about football and brain injuries - one indication of public awareness about the
health risks of head injuries on the field - started becoming more common in 2009 and have
increased each year.
Though football is the most headlined sport in terms of concussions, it should be duly
noted it is not the only sport. Researchers from Northwestern University and Wake Forest
University studied data from football, soccer, basketball, wrestling and baseball
participation for boys; soccer, basketball, volleyball and softball for girls.
The results showed a striking gender-based difference in the incidents of concussion.
Football, which is a sport most typically associated with brain injury, also has a high number
of total injuries due to its being a collision sport, was fourth on the list of concussion as a
percentage of total injuries, behind girls’ soccer, girls’ volleyball and girls’ basketball.
The reason for the aforementioned concussions in girls’ sports are mainly linked to the
theory that girls’ neck muscles are not as developed as their male counterparts.
Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass once wrote: "Football is dead in America. Football as
an American cultural institution lies in final spasm. It's as dead as the Marlboro Man."
There is no denying that more information on football players sustaining the aforementioned
head trauma being chief among reasons why parents are leery of their sons playing football
but I find Kass’ statement to be unfounded. I have a 9-year old son who plays soccer but if
he decided he wanted to play football, I would not object. However, I would not object if he
wanted to continue playing soccer. My approach as a parent is that I’m not going to push
him to play football or stay away from it. I will let him make that decision on his own.  
There have been numerous rule changes, emphasis on coaching better fundamentals and
improvement to equipment. While those measures to make the game safer are well
intentioned, they won’t make the sport risk-free. Your youngster might use the right
fundamentals but who’s to say the one hitting him is following suit?
The problem I have with Kass’ analogy of football being as dead as the Marlboro Man is
that while the person himself might be dead and there are far fewer Americans that smoke
cigarettes, you still have about 20 percent of the population partaking in inhaling nicotine,
compared to about 65 percent in the mid-1960s. Is it a dramatic decrease? Yes, but you still
have a segment of smokers in the population.
I not only believe football will still exist in 20 years, I believe the sport will still remain
popular. The demographics may shift even more dramatically than now but the sport is not
going away. Kids from upper or middle class backgrounds that come from white collar
families might be more likely to steer away from the sport but they are just as likely to watch
college football or the NFL as spectators on TV. The elite level players of the game, however,
will still find a way to play regardless of background.
I also believe that football will continue to appeal to kids that come from rough and/or
impoverished backgrounds because in their minds the sport can be their ticket to escaping
that life. Kids that come from blue collar oriented families are also less likely to be steered
away from football. They come from a background that works physically and might be less
likely to resist playing football. I know that sounds like a broad generalization but you get
the point.

So as the 2018 football season approaches, be ready for more of the same “football is dead”
storylines. I don’t say that to be cynical or unconcerned. I simply say it because I know what
lies ahead.

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