Friday, July 13, 2018

Sizing up VVAL football as season approaches

More so than any school year than recent memory, you’ll need a lineup card to track
realignment changes as it pertains to Napa Valley high schools.


Calistoga has gone through numerous realignment changes, particularly the last 25 years
but on the Napa Valley front the change only pertained to them. In 2000, the Superior
California Athletic League, which included St. Helena and Justin-Siena from 1986-2000,
disbanded. Both schools left the CIF Sac Joaquin Section for the North Coast Section,
which represented a return trip to the NCS. St. Helena rejoined the North Central League
I while Justin entered the Marin County Athletic League. St. Helena is likely entrenched in
the NCL I for the foreseeable future but Justin is leaving the Marin County Athletic League.


Meanwhile, fellow Napa County schools Vintage, American Canyon and Napa are leaving
the SJS for the NCS. Vintage and Napa had been in the SJS since 1976 after previously
being in the NCS. American Canyon has been in the SJS since opening its doors in 2010.


The four aforementioned schools will be joining the Vine Valley Athletic League with Casa
Grande (Petaluma), Petaluma and Sonoma Valley. Last November, yours truly peered into
the future of VVAL football:




As the 2018 high school football season beckons in five weeks, I peel another layer into
VVAL football. By my own admission, I’m giving it a lot of attention because it represents a
new journey whereas this angle will wane after the freshness disapates in future years.


Napa and Vintage are vacating the Monticello Empire League. American Canyon is leaving
the now disbanded Solano County Athletic Conference. Justin is bolting the MCAL. Casa
Grande is vacating the North Bay League while Sonoma and Petaluma are leaving the
Sonoma County League.


In the aforementioned blog entry, I examined the previous ten-year history for the VVAL
newcomers so as to get a feel for trend lines. In addition, I used the calpreps.com “project
a matchup” tool to gauge how the teams would have fared against one another. This time,
I took it a step further. I used the matchup tool to pit American Canyon, Napa, Justin and
Vintage against all teams from the NBL (Cardinal Newman, Rancho Cotate, Casa Grande,
Ukiah, Windsor, Santa Rosa, Carrillo and Montgomery), SCL (Analy, Piner, Petaluma,
Sonoma, El Molino, Healdsburg and Elsie Allen), and MCAL (Marin Catholic, Terra Linda,
San Marin, San Rafael, Redwood, Sir Francis Drake, Tamalpais and Novato). The tool also
pitted Justin against MEL (Vacaville, Vintage, Wood, Napa, Rodriguez and Armijo), SCAC
(American Canyon, Vanden, Benicia, Vallejo, Bethel and Fairfield), NBL and SCL. The
matchup tool also put Sonoma, Petaluma and Casa Grande against the MEL, SCAC and
MCAL.


I’m not going to bore you with breaking down every game matchup, that might take eons.
Also, understand that the “project a matchup” tool is exactly that -- a projection. Short of
creating 2018 John Madden EA Sports, calpreps.com and its project a matchup tool is all
we have from which to draw.


Casa Grande was projected to go 2-4 in the MEL, 4-2 in the SCAC (beating every team not
named American Canyon and Vanden) and 6-3 in the MCAL. Petaluma had exactly the
same projection against the MEL and SCAC but an 8-1 mark against the MCAL. Sonoma
was projected to go winless against the MEL, 1-5 in the SCAC (beating only Fairfield) and
3-6 against the MCAL.


Napa, Vintage and American Canyon had the exact same projections against the MCAL
(8-1), NBL (6-2) and SCL (7-0). Justin projected to go 1-5 against the MEL (beating only
Armijo), 2-4 against the SCAC, 0-8 against the NBL and 4-3 against the SCL.


The common denominator against the MCAL had every team losing to Marin Catholic only
with every team against the MEL losing to Vacaville. The matchup tool had every team
losing to Cardinal Newman and Rancho Cotate from the NBL.

The only conclusion that can truly be drawn is that if you are Napa and Vintage, there’s no
team on the level of Vacaville or the 2002-2016 version of Napa. If you are American
Canyon, Vintage is the one team that would be comparable to Vanden. If you are Justin,
you don’t see a team on Marin Catholic’s level. If you are Casa Grande, you don’t see a
team on Cardinal Newman’s level. If you are Sonoma or Petaluma, however, there are more
than a few teams superior to Analy.

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