Sunday, March 13, 2016

Excessive reliance on free agency is Fool's Gold

Patience. Some say it’s a virtue. Many people, however, point to the idea of how we live in an instant gratification world.

As it pertains to sports, one of my long-time favorite debates with people is how to build a team. With free agency being en vogue the past quarter century, an increasing number of fans go gaga about the free agency period activity. They conveniently forget that no Vince Lombardi Trophy is won in March.

With the NFL free agency period underway, here in Northern California, the reaction and activity could not be different for fans of both the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers. The former has been very active in signing offensive lineman Kelechi Osemeli (Baltimore), linebacker Bruce Irvin (Seattle) and cornerback Sean Smith (Kansas City). After mostly horrific seasons since 2002, Oakland showed promise in head coach Jack Del Rio’s debut in going 7-9. In a sense, the free agent activity signals that this team is ready to be a playoff participant.

The 49ers, however, have been quiet. The team signed backup quarterback Thad Lewis (Philadelphia). As of this writing, the team is still seeking to trade Colin Kaepernick to either Denver or Cleveland. The team lost offensive lineman Alex Boone, who signed with Minnesota. Fresh off a 5-11 season under since deposed head coach Jim Tomsula, 49er fans were hoping their team would be active players in the free agent market entering the Chip Kelly era.

Let’s remember one thing, the two franchises are in vastly different situations. The Raiders have spent the past couple of years building the core of their team through the draft: quarterback Derek Carr, linebacker Khalil Mack, wide receiver Amari Cooper, offensive lineman Gabe Jackson. Oakland signed wide receiver Michael Crabtree entering last season. With the Raiders appearing to trend up and the rest of the division facing uncertainty, it makes sense to sign free agents to complement the aforementioned draft picks.

San Francisco, however, has 12 draft picks, which comes in handy considering the core of the team that went 44-19-1 under former head coach Jim Harbaugh from 2011-2014 was stripped by a series of retirements. That run included a Super Bowl appearance and three NFC Title Games.

The start of the Kelly era is not likely to yield immediate success. The NFC West still houses Super Bowl contenders Seattle and Arizona. In addition, the Los Angeles Rams (7-9 last season) are not an easy out. Translation, no amount of free agent spending sprees are suddenly going to make San Francisco surpass Seattle or Arizona. Granted, if the team successfully trades Kaepernick, it would behoove them to bring in another quarterback whether it is signing Robert Griffin III or drafting California’s Jared Goff. While Blaine Gabbert was serviceable after stepping in for Kaepernick, his performance was hardly Canton, Ohio material.

Professional sports are such that a bad team can get good overnight with a few free agent moves but that can also be fool’s gold. For every Reggie White or Drew Brees there are five Albert Haynesworths.

Professional sports are littered with examples of consistent contenders that build the foundation of their team through the draft and use free agency and trades as a supplement. In the NFL, the best examples are New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Seattle, Baltimore. The Patriots built with guys like Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Willie McGinest through the draft. Then they acquire guys like Corey Dillon, Rodney Harrison, Mike Vrbal, and Randy Moss either via trade or free agency.

In the NBA, look no further than the Golden State Warriors recent success and the San Antonio Spurs, who last missed the postseason in 1996. The Warriors built their Big Three (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green) through the draft. Then they acquired Andrew Bogut via trade and Andre Iguodala as a free agent to complement them. The Spurs built core throughout the years via the draft (David Robinson, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli, Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard), then acquired pieces like Bruce Bowen, Danny Green and Patty Mills as free agents.

In Major League Baseball, look no further than teams like the Kansas City Royals, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants. In San Francisco’s case, it has won three World series titles since 2010. The Giants signed starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to free agent contracts. If the Giants win the World Series this year, I can just hear the grovels of “They bought a World Series!” Uh, no. The core of the team is home grown. Sure, they traded for right-fielder Hunter Pence in 2012 and signed him but the entire infield (Buster Posey, Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik and Brandon Belt) are homegrown. Starting pitchers Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are also homegrown. Granted, Lincecum and Cain have experienced sharp declines due to injuries which is why they signed the aforementioned Samardzija and Cueto.

The point behind this story is that nary a team wins a championship in free agency. Translation, relying on free agency to build a team is like pouring a house over bad foundation. Translation Part II, to build a consistent winner, it’s better to take the bus instead of the jet.

1 comment:

  1. Great research and analysis Vin. Thanks. George Steinbrenner's record also proves that free agency is fools' gold, but it's so tempting.

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