Overreaction to pro athlete contracts borders on comical

Sometimes a chain of events serve as a reminder of what casual sports fans do not
understand.

Professional athletes make absurd amounts of money but when I hear people complain
about such salaries my response is, “Would you turn down that money?” I either get a
defensive response or hear crickets.

Here in the Bay Area, quarterbacks Derek Carr (Oakland Raiders) and Jimmy Garoppolo
(San Francisco 49ers) each inked monster contracts within the last eight months. Last
June, Carr signed a five-year deal worth $125 million, $40 million full guarantee at signing
and injury guarantee of $70M at signing. That highest paid status lasted about 14 minutes.
Well, actually about 67 days with Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford inking a
five-year deal worth $135 million. Stafford's contract set records for largest signing bonus
($50 million), most money fully guaranteed at signing ($60.5 million) and three-year cash
flow ($87 million).

Thanks to Garoppolo resetting the market, Stafford is no longer the highest paid player in
the NFL. The 49ers inked Garoppolo to a five-year deal of $137.5 million deal on Thursday
with $74 million guaranteed. With Washington’s Kirk Cousins, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers,
Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger facing
the prospect of new deals, Garoppolo’s status of highest paid might last 27 minutes. If you
are any of those quarterbacks, you’re not taking a dime less than $30 million a year.

The 49ers acquired Garoppolo on Oct. 30 from New England, where he spent his first three
NFL seasons as Tom Brady’s understudy. Garoppolo started two games for the Patriots in
2016 and five for the 49ers after the aforementioned trade. Garoppolo guided San Francisco
to five wins as the team finished 6-10, two wins over eventual playoff teams Tennessee and
Jacksonville. The late season surge has 49er fans envisioning a playoff team as soon as the
2018 campaign.

The reaction from traditional media to social media has been all over the map. You are either
a 49er fan that feels like the franchise discovered bread now that their team has Garoppolo
or you think that’s too much money for a guy that has only started seven NFL games.

There is every reason to think the 49ers are a playoff contender. The have a dynamic
coach/general manager combination of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to go along with
the addition of Garoppolo. In the NFC West, Arizona is breaking in a new coach and
quarterback. Once dominant Seattle is at a crossroads. The Los Angeles Rams have a
dynamic quarterback/running back tandem in Jared Goff and todd Gurley along with a
brilliant head coach (Sean McVay). The time is right for San Francisco to become relevant
but pump the brakes -- or have another drink -- if you think this is a 12-4 team just yet.
Are the 49ers the team that started 0-9 or finished 6-1? The truth lies somewhere in the
middle.

There are plenty of examples of players signing a long term deal only to regress.
Garoppolo, however, is an intelligent player that has been well-schooled. I see that trend
continuing under Shanahan. The only worry is durability since he has yet to play a
16-game season but that’s the risk you take, especially in football.

If you think the franchise ponied up too much coin too soon, you are missing the point.
For openers, every year there are guys that have yet to play a single snap in the NFL that
sign multi-million dollar deals. Through Garoppolo has started just seven games, the point
is that he has been in the league for three years.

Garoppolo has been coached up by Bill Belichick and Patriots offensive coordinator Josh
McDaniels. It is also fair to say that Garoppolo has learned by observing the aforementioned
future Hall-of-Famer Brady. In his five starts as a 49er, he made a pedestrian group of
receivers, running backs and offensive linemen better. My goodness, Marquis Lee looked
like Jerry Rice once Garoppolo was in the starting lineup.

It is astounding how many casual fans show their lack of scruples when they link a player’s
salary with his resume, stats and where they rank among their peers. When a player signs a
record-setting contract, some fans have an orgasm with statements like, “He’s not worth
that money!” or “How can he be making that much money when this player over here has
better stats” or things to that effect. Basing a player’s salary on where he ranks among his
peers is flawed logic because careers have peaks and valleys. You just hope their
performance averages out relevant to their salary.

Take last season’s contract carasel between Carr and Stafford. After a promising first three
seasons, Carr and his Raider teammates took a nosedive on the way to a 6-10 season.
While injuries and former head coach Jack Del Rio’s roster and coaching staff
mismanagement played a role in the team’s downfall, Carr’s 2017 performance did not
measure up to his aforementioned new contract. If you are a Raider fan, the hope is that
the hiring of head coach Jon Gruden can get a broken down Carr back on the road -- pun
intended. On the flip side, Carr’s rookie contract of four years for $5.3 million measured
to his first three seasons would qualify as outperforming the contract. Keep in mind, in
2016 the Raiders went 12-4 with Carr being an NFL MVP candidate.

Stafford, thanks in part to a longer body of work, jumped Carr as the highest paid player.
Stafford just completed his ninth season. Before the 2017 season, most people had Carr
ranked in the 6-8 range among quarterbacks, Stafford was anywhere from 10-14. The
narrative was “Dammit how could Stafford be making more than Carr!” Based on 2017,
however, you can’t argue with Stafford being ranked ahead of Carr, thus making more
money. Just like last season, however, things could change.

Contracts are about timing, leverage and economics. If you think they are about resumes,
stats or ranking peers, you are naive by definition. Short of teams losing revenue, player
salaries are only going to skyrocket.

So the next record contract you see a player sign, understand two things: a) He is worth it
despite your belief to the contrary because b) His salary will be dwarfed within a year and
thus be a bargain.