Predictions can be volatile. You have your own idea of how things might play out before the season begins but as various things happen when the season gets underway that alter your perception of what the team is capable of achieving.
Before the season, I predicted both Bay Area NFL teams (Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers) to go 6-10. My viewpoint has changed only slightly:
San Francisco 49ers (1-3): Though most people picked a doom and gloom outcome for this team amid head coach Jim Harbaugh’s resignation/passive-aggressive firing, player retirements and free agent losses, it has perhaps gone even worse than expected. The season started in promising fashion with a 20-3 Monday Night win over the Minnesota Vikings. Ever since, two blowout losses on the road to Pittsburgh (43-18) and Arizona (47-7) and a 17-3 home loss to Green Bay.
It’s hard to find much positive to say about this team. What you essentially have is an offense that has difficulty scoring or sustaining drives. Even in the win over Minnesota, running back Carlos Hyde shined in gaining 189 yards on 26 carries and two touchdowns, the offense struggled for much of the first half before putting the Vikings away. You also have a defense that has been a sieve in its road losses and plays better at home.
The scary thing about the 49ers most recent loss (17-3 to Green Bay) is that if you hold a prolific offense like the Packers to 17 points, you feel like you have a very good chance to win. In watching the game unfold, however, it never felt that way.
Some blame ownership (owner Jed York/general manager Trent Baalke), some blame head coach Jim Tomsula and others blame quarterback Colin Kaepernick. There’s plenty of blame to go around. Tomsula, who was never more than a position coach in the NFL, is not the answer but I give him a mulligan because ownership has set him up to fail.
Kaepernick and the position of quarterback are polarizing in that they get too much credit when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses. The common theme is that Kaepernick has regressed. However, I find that debateable because he is the same player as when the team went to three straight NFC Title Games and one Super Bowl. It’s just that the talent and leadership around him hid those flaws. In fact, it’s highly questionable if he will ever make the transition from “athlete” to “quarterback.”
Revised prediction -- 4-12 is the best the 49ers will do.
Oakland Raiders (2-2): The Silver and Black have performed like most realistic people thought they would. First-year head coach Jack Del Rio has demonstrated the kind of leadership former head coach Dennis Allen did not.
While the Raiders cannot be considered a contender yet, in stock market terms, they appear to be “trending up.” Oakland will be put to the test Sunday against AFC West leading Denver. The Broncos are one of six unbeaten teams in the NFL.
After a season-opening 33-13 blowout loss at home to Cincinnati that was not even that close, the Raiders bounced with with a 37-33 come-from-behind-win over Baltimore at home and a 27-20 road win over Cleveland. Oakland lost 22-20 at Chicago on Sunday.
As long as quarterback Derek Carr stays healthy, there are reasons to believe the Raiders will continue to show promise. With the addition of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, this is the best receiving corps Oakland has had since Tim Brown and Jerry Rice in the early 2000s. While Latavius Murray is a solid running back, the Raiders ground game has mostly been feast or famine.
Defensively, the Raiders struggled against Cincinnati and Baltimore. To be fair, both teams have prolific quarterbacks (Andy Dalton, Cincinnati; Joe Flacco, Baltimore) so those games can be seen as “no harm, no foul.”
The good news is that first-year defensive coordinator Ken Norton’s group has recorded eight sacks the last two weeks after none in the first two. However, one must wonder if Raider defenders are aware that tight ends are eligible receivers.
Revised prediction -- none. I still see the Raiders as a 6-10 team but with a couple of breaks 7-9 or 8-8 is within reach.
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