The term “defining moment” often gets overused but for the Oakland Raiders, Sunday’s matchup against the AFC West rival Denver Broncos would qualify as exactly that. It will reveal either how far the Raiders have come -- or how far they need to go.
However, the defining moment will not be dependant on winning or losing the game. Don’t get the wrong idea, I’m not advocating moral victories but not all games are created equal.
Since hiring Jack Del Rio as head coach shortly after the 2014 season, the common theme has been how this is a new era of Raider football.
Oakland’s record would give credence to such in going 2-2. That record might sound pedestrian but when you have been as abysmal as the Raiders have been since 2003, suddenly a 2-2 mark looks great. Oakland’s futility needs no explanation or pontification. The Raiders have lost 10 or more games in every season but two (2010 and 2011) since 2003 and last had a winning record in 2002.
The Broncos, meanwhile, have won the AFC West the last four seasons and are 18-1 against division foes since quarterback Peyton Manning joined the team in 2012.
To add further perspective, why Sunday’s game is so vital to the Raiders? In the last 18 games against teams that have made the playoffs, Oakland is 1-17 with the majority of those losses come in ugly fashion. Of the Raiders first opponents in 2015, Cincinnati (which trounced Oakland 33-13) appears on its way to the playoffs at 4-0. Baltimore (which the Raiders rallied to beat 37-33) is 1-3 right now and might make the postseason but still has some work to do. Cleveland (which the Raiders beat 27-20) and Chicago (which defeated Oakland 22-20) are not likely to make the postseason.
The loss to the Bengals, however, came on opening day. Cincinnati has been a proven commodity having made the postseason six of the last ten years. Sure, they went home after the first game but that is another story. The point is, they are established in what they do. The Raiders, meanwhile, were playing their first game under a new head coach. That statement is more of an explanation than a justification.
The Broncos enter Sunday’s game in Oakland as a 4.5 point favorite, which may as well be 7.5 because the oddsmakers in Las Vegas generally value homefield advantage at 3.0 points. This Denver team has a different makeup than the previous three since Manning has joined from Indianapolis. From 2012-2014, Denver averaged 32.9 points per game while giving up 21.7. The 2015 version of the Broncos, mainly due to an aging Manning, has downshifted by averaging 24.2 points and giving up 17.2.
By no means am I saying the Raiders have to beat Denver to show that a new era has arrived. Keep in mind, before the season most reasonable people (Kool Aid sippers excluded) had Oakland pegged as a 5-7 win club. Since Al Davis’ passing and son, Mark Davis, taking over the team, the makeover began. The franchise hired a general manager, Reggie McKenzie. The problem was that the franchise had no quick fixes. The franchise was in salary cap hell, thanks to bad contracts as a result of bad free agent signings and too many high draft picks that whiffed.
Now the Raiders have the bad contracts off the books and have the full compliment of draft picks, which puts them in a position of forward momentum. There is much more at stake though for the Raiders than simply find a way to go 6-10 or 8-8. This franchise wants a new stadium. Well, they won’t get it by going 4-12.
So, what will the measuring stick be Sunday against the Broncos? Beating Denver would be great but also a tall order. If the Raiders lose but are competitive with a chance to win, that would be a sign of progress. What can’t happen is another blowout loss.
What would be a “competitive loss?” Definitely a game within a touchdown but you can’t always look at the score alone to determine if a game was competitive. Just as a for instance, let’s say the Broncos win 35-24. The game looks competitive on the surface but if the Broncos are ahead 35-10 in the fourth quarter, that means Oakland scored two garbage time touchdowns to make the game appear close. However, if Denver wins 35-24 but scores a touchdown late in the game to put the contest out of reach, you can say the game was competitive.
Count me among those who finds it misleading when someone says, “a loss is a loss whether it’s by one point or 40 points.” Factually, that statement is true but it also misses the point. Teams can win but look bad, those games are fool’s gold. However, team’s can lose to a better team and play well.
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